It was once taken for granted that all swans were invariably, uniformly, unfailingly white.  When Europeans "discovered" Australia, however, they also discovered black swans.  Today the term "black swan" is used for an event that blasts apart the boundaries of received knowledge and rational expectation.

Kevin Phillips, who has made the circuitous journey from Reagan strategist to economic populist, challenges us to discern the black swan on the economic horizon.  In "Bad Money" (scheduled for 4/15 publication), Phillips suggests that the financial services sector, responsible for some 40% of economic growth and employment during the Bush presidency, as presently constituted is a WMD that ultimately will demolish not only itself but the fundamental economic parameters to which we are accustomed. The new economic America that will reluctantly emerge is likely to have vastly different expectations and structure.

(Have you come across the term "neutron loan" in the financial press?  Like a neutron bomb, a neutron loan destroys the people and leaves the houses standing.)

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Increasingly, renters nationwide are getting caught up in the foreclosure shuffle.  Rental properties, often purchased by speculators during the boom, now comprise 38% of foreclosures.  And "in most states, foreclosure itself automatically terminates a tenancy," says housing attorney Judith Liben.  In many cases, renters are also losing their security and pet deposits and other upfront expenses.

In Ohio, for instance, "the basic rule is ... if a home is foreclosed on, the lease is no longer good," says Scott Torguson of Southeast Ohio Legal Services.  "When they have to be out depends on the bank."

Most banks haven't the slightest desire to become landlords and require renters to vacate with a few weeks' notice.  A best-case scenario is a "cash for keys" incentive program that pays the renter off to move out quickly.  For many renters, however, the upshot is a notice from the bank that the rent is now some outrageous amount, a thinly-veiled invitation to leave with great alacrity.

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Milk prices up 26%.  Eggs up 40%!  After nearly two decades of inflation-resistant food prices, consumers are approaching the check-out counter with fear and trepidation.

The Kansas City Fed says that "today's momentum in food prices may be signaling a new erea of even higher food prices."  While they expect food price inflation to ease in '08, they see an increase well above the ten-year average of 2.6%.  The strongest price pressures are likely to come from fats and oils, cereal, and bakery products.

Likely to do well in this economic environment:  house/store/off/generic brands and private labels.  Susceptible to buyer flight:  organic/"whole"/"natural" foods.

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Business reference staff Mike DePue and Eric Deatherage offer two resources to help former Willow Brook employees find jobs that match their skills and experience:

ReferenceUSA* provides address, phone, and personnel information for more than 800 poultry slaughter and processing businesses in the U.S. Use the yellow page heading "Poultry Processing Plants". For a wider food industry approach, use "Food Processing" to access information on 3,200 facilities.

The web site Careers in Food allows users to search more than 5,000 current food and beverage manufacturing job listings.

For job search resources in other industries, take a look at the Minding Your Business Company Research page and the Library's InfoLink Employment page.

For more information about using any of these resources, contact the Library online or call 417-883-5341.

*A valid library card is required to use this database. Don't have a card? Apply online.

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Once normalcy returns, what will the financial sector look like and how will it behave?  Suggestions are beginning to emerge that the future will look far different than the past.

"We are going to have to create whole new ways of securitizing and funding debt of all types, but especially mortgages and consumer credit.  ...It is going to take time to replace a system that took decades to build," writes Bethany McLean of CNNMoney.  Profits in the financial sector had increased far beyond historic levels; if earnings return to sustainable levels, the subsequent shakeout is likely to have fundamental ramifications.

The advent of securitization led to a mindset among frontline lending officers that the money they were lending, since its underlying collateral was ending up in some distantly-removed asset pool, would allow the good loans that somebody must be making to carry the questionable loans that they themselves were making. As has become grimly obvious, however, that mindset only has any degree of validity in an up-market.

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The Elgin (IL) public library district hopes to break ground on a new facility this spring. It is to include a geothermal heating and cooling system expected to provide annual energy savings of $3,660.

Decades after geothermal technology has been established as a proven energy saver, less than 1% of US homes have such systems. Up to this point, installation of a geothermal system could cost twice as much as a new conventional gas or electric system.

Is there a future for geothermal? Its production and usage seem to involve no environmental degradation, something its competitors certainly can't claim. And what about geothermal electricity production?

Geothermal stocks are a mixed bag of Johnny-come-lately penny stocks and stocks with a respectable capitalization and track record. Among those showing stock-price growth over five years: Constellation Energry Group [CEG] (+223.8%); IdaCorp [IDA] (+48.52%); PG & E [PCG] (+185.23%); Raser Technologies [RZ] (+357.84%).

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During the years 1984-2004, a portfolio of clever ticker-symbol stocks (SEA, TAP, YUM, for example) would have beaten the market by a substantial and statistically significant margin.  "Would a Stock by Any Other Ticker Smell As Sweet?" describes this in exhaustive--and even exhausting--detail.  This 22-page paper was produced by three Pomono College economists.

In today's turbulent investment waters, however, results are mixed.  While LENS (Concord Camera) showed a recent six-month gain of 40.51% and BOOM (Dynamic Materials) was up an equivalent 34.91%, CASH (Meta Financial Group) declined 29.82%  and CAR (Avis Budget Group) dropped a whopping 51.27%.

Other entertaining (but not necessarily lucrative) symbols that might not have crossed your path:  MOO (Market Vectors, a livestock company); WOOF (VCA Antech, veterinary services); GEEK (Internet America); BABY (Natus Medical, medical products for infants); SEED (Origin Agritech Limited); UGLYX (Leuthold Undervalued and Unloved, a mutual fund specializing in undervalued companies); TINY (Harris & Harris Group, venture capital for tiny technology); DIET (eDiets.com); NUT (Macadamia Orchards); CHUX (O'Charleys restaurants); BID (Sotheby's); FUN (Cedar Fair, amusement parks); WOLF (Great Wolf Resorts); CAKE ( Cheesecake Factory).

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In many respects, we still have the same mindset about business travel that is characterized by Willy Loman in the 1949 play Death of a Salesman. In fact, it hasn't changed that much since the stagecoach was the best way to get from here to there and telegraphy was considered cutting-edge technology.

While we await the definitive pychosocial study as to why we continue to hold fast to such a clunky way of getting things done, consider the bare-bones regime that many companies are imposing on their biz travelers.

Business Week has a top-notch web site titled Travelers Check. Two of their recent offerings: A Wily Road Warrior's Airport Tips and a call for entrants for the first annual Del Griffith Award for Business Travel, which went to the lucky(?) reader who submitted the most bizarre/painful biz-travel experience.  (Del Griffith--his title is Director of Sales, American Light and Fixture, Shower Curtain Ring Division--is the John Candy character in Planes, Trains and Automobiles.)

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The S&P 500 contains 87 stocks that can be characterized as consumer discretionary investments. Clearly, the products and services offered by some of these companies are more discretionary than others.  I've subjectively picked a few of the companies that seem to me to be providing products or services that consumers could or would most easily dispense with (however reluctantly) in an economic downturn.  Their six-month stock price change percentage are listed below.

Starbucks (-33.73%). Fortune Brands [hardware, spirit & wine, golf products] (-21.97%). Harman Intl. Industries [audio products] (-63.13%).  Liz Claiborne (-47.76%).  Brunswick Corp. [sporting goods and services] (-35.51%). Carnival Corp. [cruise lines] (-7.25%).  Starwood Hotels & Resorts (-17.27%). Macy's (-20.91%). Expedia (-14.41%). Family Dollar Stores (-27.52%). Tiffany & Co. (-18.03%).

The six-month S&P 500 (as a whole) percentage change was -7.58%.

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Admittedly, this is a shameless plug for our Local History department and their informational and interesting digitized collections.  But it's also a remarkable backward glance at some of the foundational aspects of Springfield business history.

The past can still be seen in the Woodruff Building, the Heer's Building, the Kentwood Arms Hotel (now Missouri State University's Kentwood Hall, a residence facility), and Martin Chrysler-Plymouth (currently the Discovery Center).

In other cases, these postcards are all that remain of once vibrant businesses.  While Hultsman Oil Company, Eagle Tourist Court, the Baldwin Theatre, and the original Lohmeyer Funeral Home location (which was razed in '87 to become a Kentwood Hall parking lot) are long gone, they have left their mark, however subtle, on today's business scene.

For many possibilities that we haven't pointed out, visit the Historical Postcards site.

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We're just getting our heads around "collateralized debt obligations" (CDOs).  That's not to say that most of us understand their innermost workings, but we know that they're connected with subprime mortgages and that the connection isn't working out that well.

The latest exports from the Financial Chamber of Horrors are "credit default swaps" (purchased to hedge against CDO losses) and "constant proportion debt obligations" (which package indexes of credit default swaps).  The bottom-line number on these little beauties is $45.5 trillion, or about twice the size of the US stock market.

Since the market for the above-mentioned securities is unregulated (think financial Wild West here), the health of said market is difficult to gauge.  However, it is believed that the market value of the underlying contracts outstanding far exceeds the $5.7 trillion in corporate bonds for which they were designed as default protection.  The Feb. 17th New York Times front-page article by Gretchen Morgenson makes this relatively understandable; the paper edition is available at the Library Station or the Library Center, while the online edition is available to Springfield-Greene County Library cardholders.

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A "Valentine's Day Consumer Intentions and Actions Survey" is clearly something to be taken seriously.  However, it's just the tip of the informational iceberg when it comes to research into the economic aspects of Valentine's Day, the third largest spending season in the US.

If you want to be informationally immersed, look over the whole detailed survey, current and retrospective.

However, it's just possible that you'll find that more than a little daunting, so here's a lighter-weight option that will tell you (among other things) that 3% of pet owners give a V-Day gift to their pet.  Suburban Chicago's Daily Herald, looking for a new slant, picks up on an organic Valentine's Day trend in Schaumburg, IL.

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Al makes $50,000 per year while others are making $25,000 per year.  Tom makes $100,000 per year while others are making $250,000 per year.  Would you rather be Al or Tom?

Cindy is told that, as a store's 100,000th customer, she wins $100.  As a contest finalist, a man wins $1,000; Paula, the only other finalist, wins $150.  Would you rather be Cindy or Paula?

You are given $100 to split between yourself and your game partner.  If your partner accepts the proposed split, you each get to keep your share.  If your partner rejects the proposed split, neither of you gets any of the money.  How much should you offer?

See how the majority of people would answer these questions at Why People Believe Weird Things About Money.

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Samuelson is referring to the economic stimulus recipe that Congress and the Prez are whipping up for an election-year citizenry.  In his opinion, the package is either political symbolism and/or not likely to have much effect on a $14 trillion economy.

Part of the package will involve accelerated capital investment depreciation for businesses.  Chris House, co-author of a study of an earlier tax break, opines:  "It's like subsidizing bananas in the supermarket and then looking to see if total supermarket sales changed."  He believes that such measures offer slight benefit.

Syndicated columnist Marie Cocco notes that in every recession since 1958, Congress has enacted a temporary extension of unemployment benefits and that this has proven to be a surefire way of getting money to people who will spend it immediately.  So why is this now "extraneous spending" and out of the present package?

See the San Francisco Chronicle and the Gotham Gazette for understandable background.

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"Almost all business cards are terrible.  They are the leisure suits of the marketing world, the place where bad design not just lives, but thrives."

Thus saith Seth Godin, author, entrepreneur, and change agent.  Godin has a checklist of common business-card blunders, including the relationship between font size and cheesiness.  A good guideline is to use a font size no smaller than 7 or 8 point.

How would you react to a business card that sprouts vegetation?  Or a card with a quote from Oprah?  Or a superhero name (left over perhaps from a previous career in the World Wrestling Federation)?  Creativity and good taste can coexist!

And, please, don't use your predecessor's card with his/her name lined out and your name scrawled in!

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A) Have you given any thought to your 401(k) fees?
B) Do you even realize that you pay such fees?  (It seems that most people don't grasp this.)
C) Would you be astounded to find out that you may be paying 3% - 5% per year?

These expenses have a huge impact on how much money your 401(k) investment will eventually be worth.  Over thirty years, an extra 1% in fees can devour 20% of an individual's nest egg!

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Fair or foul, business/economic/financial 2007 has been a wild and interesting ride.  Fortune magazine has entered the election fray by nominating and electing the 101 dumbest moments in business for the past year.

Don't miss #7.  You'll never think of Toto as an adorable little dog again.

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Holiday cheer in the Springfield-area small business community has taken a big hit, due to the death on Sunday, Dec. 16th, of Cliff Groover.  Cliff's diligent and resourceful work for the local chapter of SCORE (Counselors to America's Small Business) helped many beginning and established entrepreneurs to realize their goals and aspirations.  Always an enthusiastic proponent of The Library and its services, Cliff had formerly served on its Board of Trustees.

His obituary gives only a hint of the selfless impact that Cliff had in quite a number of areas of the community over many years.  His unfailing friendliness to all, cooperative approach, and infectious optimism will be greatly missed by all who had the good fortune to come into contact with him.

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At this time of year, the stock market is anticipating a Santa Claus Rally.  This much-debated effect, to the degree that it actually exists, is supposed to propel the market higher in the last days of the year.

"If Santa Claus should fail to call, bears will come to Broad and Wall."

However, Santa's Stock Portfolio(TM) is looking rather holly jolly.  Beginning in 2002, Amegy Bank of Texas have tracked a list of Santa's "personal" stock picks.  Given his line of work, Santa zeroes in on the consumer discretionary and personal technology sectors.  Through December 13th, his 2007 portfolio is headed north (North Pole?) to the tune of 28%.  If you'd had Santa for your financial adviser, you'd have a five-year average return of 34%!

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The front page of the October 31st issue of The Outlook, published by Standard & Poor's and found in the Reference area at the Library Center on South Campbell, has a chart integrating the occurence of recessions and housing slumps.  The accompanying Outlook article discusses this.

While S&P pegs the liklihood of a recession at 33%, Alan Greenspan and others see the odds as 50-50 or better.

Even the White House, a very reliable purveyor of sunny optimism, isn't sounding all that perky.

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Protecting people on the job benefits our economy, our communities, employers, workers and their families.

When small businesses tap into the Occupational Safety and Health Administration’s many resources, incidents of injury and illness go down, insurance costs go down and workers' compensation payments go down. At the same time, employee morale goes up, productivity goes up, competitiveness goes up and profits go up.

One of OSHA’s most popular publications is the Small Business Handbook. This link lets you look at it online or order a paper copy; look for publication 2209.

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Library staff member Eric Deatherage suggests the following informational possibilities:

A refinancing program called an FHA Streamline can lower the rate of the owner in an FHA home loan without any closing cost (in cash or added onto the principle of the loan). 

The FHASecure program is designed to give a second chance to people who were previously in good standing but are now facing foreclosure.  It provides service for non-FHA ARM loans that have reset.

There is substantive Federal Housing Administration advice for people facing foreclosure.

Here's what it takes to obtain an FHA secured loan on a manufactured home.

There's also a VA Interest rate reduction program; lenders can lower VA home loan interest rates without closing costs.

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Library staff member Eric Deatherage provided the following annotated Web site suggestions for persons with poor credit who are in search of fiixed-rate mortgages:

http://www.homeloans.va.gov/
VA home loan.  Not credit score driven.  Driven by credit history rather than credit score.  Certificate of eligibility required; the site explains how to get this certificate.  Zero down.  Debt to income ratio must be between 30 and 40%.

http://www.fha.gov/owner/loans.cfm#1
FHA home loan.  Fixed rate product.  Requires 3% down, but there are local donation programs that will cover that amount.  43% debt to income, including home, needed.

http://www.freddiemac.com/homepossible
Freddie Mac program.  Zero down.

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There are plenty of excellent books on how to create and promote your brand or even yourself as a brand. But knowing what NOT to do is an equally important of your strategy. Find tips and resources in the latest Minding Your Business newsletter.

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Your Money and Your Brain, a new book by Jason Zweig at The Library, explains why “the brain is not an optimal tool for making investment decisions” for most folks.

Read all about the science behind this in the October 2^nd issue of The Prudent Speculator, found in the Reference area at the Library Center on South Campbell.

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Left untreated, clinical depression is as costly as heart disease or AIDS to the US economy, costing over $43.7 billion in absenteeism from work (over 200 million days lost from work each year), lost productivity and direct treatment costs.

NAMI SW Missouri, a recent Expo 2007 exhibitor, and Mental Health America provide a solid overview of depression in the workplace.

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Library research indicates that consumer indebtedness and easy credit are no longer just an American phenomenon. Foreign banks, often in partnership with American lenders, are using every ploy from giveaways to cold calling to ingrain the buy-now, pay later concept. See the latest edition of the Library's Minding Your Business newsletter (pdf) for details.

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Has the crest of the wave hit the beach? If moribund subprime loans were hairballs, could we say that the economy has coughed most of them up?

Whatever unlovely analogy you might care to use, this subject may be a drag on the economy for quite a while.  Try Richard Benson’s Titanic-and iceberg analogy.

Jack Guttentag uses an optometric analogy (disaster myopia).

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It’s a common offhand assertion that 90% of new businesses fail. This has been so often heard for so long that it’s almost acquired the status of a self-evident truth. Where and what is the statistical verification for this? Well, it turns out that there really isn’t any. Studies that have been done tend to be fragmentary and dated. For a very good overview of what is known, Rhonda Abrams (whose views are well worth hearing on any business subject) covers this here.

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